Seatrade-Maritime: Shippers unimpressed by container line reliability

Published by Seatrade-Maritime

Whether you accept Sea-Intelligence’s view that global liner reliability has declined to 62.6%, or Xeneta’s modest increase to 39% figures, shippers believe the services and excuses lack credibility.

Over the last week Sea-Intelligence and Xeneta have released their latest container shipping reliability statistics, both arrive at poor results, but view the statistics from different angles.

Sea-Intelligence seeks to use the latest vessel departure data, whereas Xeneta use the initial schedule, often published some months in advance of the departure date.

Methods for measuring schedule reliability is a contested subject, but what is clear, whichever way you cut it, Gemini Cooperation’s carriers are streets ahead of their competitors.

Even so their customers remain unimpressed.

Global Shippers’ Forum (GSF) director James Hookham, told Seatrade Maritime News: “This sounds like Covid conditions again – rising rates, poor performance and predictions of bigger profits.”

Promises of reliability in excess of 90% have only been met by Gemini according to Sea Intelligence criteria, in the May/June period when it achieved 93.4% reliability.

Though taken separately Hapag Lloyd’s June performance of 75.6% was only marginally worse than Maersk’s 77.1% and was followed by what looks like a somewhat surprising of 72.1% reliability for MSC when compared with numbers from Xeneta. No other carrier achieved over 70% reliability in June, according to Sea-Intelligence data.

Xeneta, which also reported on alliances, as well as individual lines, put Gemini’s performance in the first two quarters of this year at 65% and 69%, a marginal improvement during the first six months.

Ocean Alliance improved the most from Q1 to Q2, up 15 points in the second quarter to 43%. And the Premier Alliance improved by 12% to 26% in Q2.

Stand-alone operator, and the world’s biggest carrier MSC, performed poorly in Xeneta’s data compared to Sea-Intelligence’s statistics, mustering a 9% improvement in Q2 on its 20% reliability figure for Q1. That put MSC above the poorest performer, the Premier Alliance, but well below the non-alliance lines’ 35% reliability performance in the second quarter.

These figures are expected to improve as congestion in major regions, including southeast Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and Europe see waiting times improve.

Though Hookham is, again, unmoved by the explanation: “The finger of blame is being pointed at port congestion in Europe but that doesn’t quite wash as most terminals are owned or operated by subsidiaries of the shipping lines themselves.”

He went on to ask: “Where exactly is the congestion occurring: is it access to berth space, container transfer times and lifts per hour, or a shortage of inland transport capacity? All of which are in the terminal operators’ control.”

Xeneta, meanwhile, argues that some carriers have removed “chronically late sailings” into the Middle East “flattering the Q2 baseline”, in addition, the freight intelligence platform said that carriers are using cancelled sailings to “offset” delays and “prop up reliability”.

Destine Ozuygur, senior analyst at Xeneta, said: “We’re now looking well beyond on-time percentages when we talk about schedule management – the most accurate insights about reliability are inextricably tied to capacity management.”

Sea-Intelligence does not consider blanked sailings in its statements on reliability but does point out that consistency is critical for customers rather than a single high-performance month followed by a sub-par performance the following month.

Shippers, however, believe there is a shroud obscuring their view of carrier reliability, which could lift in Q4, after the earlier than expected peak season, unless there is another major disruptive event.

“Once again, we are waiting for the fog of short-term disruption to lift, that is the Gulf war and pre-tariff ordering, to see the bigger picture. We’re left wondering whether all the expected new capacity really will ‘flood’ the market or be absorbed through the tactical use of blanked sailings, skipped ports, slow steaming, longer port calls, also known as port congestion.”